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Jurnal ISEI Tahun 2009

RISK ANALYSIS OF INDONESIAN FOOD CROP PRODUCTION BY REGION

 

 

 

RISK ANALYSIS OF INDONESIAN FOOD CROP PRODUCTION BY REGION
Penulis: Richard Llewelyn-Universitas Kristen Petra Surabaya [ 25/6/2007 ]

 

Stochastic dominance analysis is use evaluate food crop production in Sumatra, Java, Bali / Nusa Tenggara, Kalimantan, and Sulawesi for rice, corn, cassava, peanuts, and soybeans between 1990 ? 1999. Data from BPS are used to calculate net returns for each of the 25 crop / region combinations.
The result show that rice production is dominant to other food crops in Indonesia. peanuts are the next most risk ? efficient crop, after rice. Furthermore, important secondary food crops such as corn and soybeans are less profitable or have higher levels of risk while rice is best produced in Java and Bali. Corn production is best in Sumatra, Java, and Bali, while Bali and Sulawesi are the best regions for cassava production overall. Peanuts ca be produced well in all regions except Sulawesi, while soybeans do well in Java, Kalimantan and Sulawesi. When each individual region is analyzed separately, rice is preferred over other crops in each region except Kalimantan. In addition, peanuts are selected in Sumatra, Java , and Kalimantan. government incentives which promote the production of secondary food crops such as corn and soybeans should be eliminated based on this analysis. If corn and soybeans must be produced, they should be produced off ? Java and off ? Bali.






Keywords : risk, stochastic dominance, food crop production, Indonesia.

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